2 Responses to “The Monty Hall Problem”

1. Liz Parkhurst Says:
   May 8th, 2008 at 6:14 pm

   Hi, Ron,
   The flaw in your argument is that the problem changes once the Goat door is opened - that action turns the choice from a 3-way to a 2-way choice, i.e. from 33-33-33 to 50-50.
   It’s a question of timing.
   And, given the state of my lawn, yes I’d rather have a goat!
   Cheers,
   Liz

2. Damian Manifold Says:
   May 8th, 2008 at 6:59 pm

   @Liz Parkhurst -
   

   Hi, Ron,
   The flaw in your argument is that the problem changes once the Goat door is opened - that action turns the choice from a 3-way to a 2-way choice, i.e. from 33-33-33 to 50-50.
   It’s a question of timing.
   And, given the state of my lawn, yes I’d rather have a goat!
   Cheers,
   Liz

   I’ve heard a few explanations and I’m convinced. I think the point is it doesn’t matter about the new informations.
   Check out this simulation that iterations through many random choices.
   http://www.userpages.de/monty_hall_problem/
   Does that win you over?

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