Comments on: The Monty Hall Problem http://www.damianm.co.uk/index.php/2008/05/07/the-monty-hall-problem/ The eternal confessions of a beautiful mind... Fri, 16 May 2008 15:15:06 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.5.1 By: Damian Manifold http://www.damianm.co.uk/index.php/2008/05/07/the-monty-hall-problem/#comment-172 Damian Manifold Thu, 08 May 2008 17:59:22 +0000 http://www.damianm.co.uk/?p=460#comment-172 @Liz Parkhurst - <blockquote>Hi, Ron, The flaw in your argument is that the problem changes once the Goat door is opened - that action turns the choice from a 3-way to a 2-way choice, i.e. from 33-33-33 to 50-50. It's a question of timing. And, given the state of my lawn, yes I'd rather have a goat! Cheers, Liz</blockquote> I've heard a few explanations and I'm convinced. I think the point is it doesn't matter about the new informations. Check out this simulation that iterations through many random choices. http://www.userpages.de/monty_hall_problem/ Does that win you over? @Liz Parkhurst -
Hi, Ron,
The flaw in your argument is that the problem changes once the Goat door is opened - that action turns the choice from a 3-way to a 2-way choice, i.e. from 33-33-33 to 50-50.
It’s a question of timing.
And, given the state of my lawn, yes I’d rather have a goat!
Cheers,
Liz

I’ve heard a few explanations and I’m convinced. I think the point is it doesn’t matter about the new informations.
Check out this simulation that iterations through many random choices.
http://www.userpages.de/monty_hall_problem/
Does that win you over?

]]> By: Liz Parkhurst http://www.damianm.co.uk/index.php/2008/05/07/the-monty-hall-problem/#comment-171 Liz Parkhurst Thu, 08 May 2008 17:14:50 +0000 http://www.damianm.co.uk/?p=460#comment-171 Hi, Ron, The flaw in your argument is that the problem changes once the Goat door is opened - that action turns the choice from a 3-way to a 2-way choice, i.e. from 33-33-33 to 50-50. It's a question of timing. And, given the state of my lawn, yes I'd rather have a goat! Cheers, Liz Hi, Ron,
The flaw in your argument is that the problem changes once the Goat door is opened - that action turns the choice from a 3-way to a 2-way choice, i.e. from 33-33-33 to 50-50.
It’s a question of timing.
And, given the state of my lawn, yes I’d rather have a goat!
Cheers,
Liz

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