The Monty Hall Problem
This is a very strange and counter intuitive problem. I’ve heard the explanation before, but could never successfully explain it enough to convince anybody else, they just though i was nuts. Here is a nice video that does what I cannot. But do you believe the answer.
May 8th, 2008 at 6:14 pm
Hi, Ron,
The flaw in your argument is that the problem changes once the Goat door is opened - that action turns the choice from a 3-way to a 2-way choice, i.e. from 33-33-33 to 50-50.
It’s a question of timing.
And, given the state of my lawn, yes I’d rather have a goat!
Cheers,
Liz
May 8th, 2008 at 6:59 pm
@Liz Parkhurst -
I’ve heard a few explanations and I’m convinced. I think the point is it doesn’t matter about the new informations.
Check out this simulation that iterations through many random choices.
http://www.userpages.de/monty_hall_problem/
Does that win you over?